As Juniper stated in its May report, it seems a Donald Trump presidency is going well for the price of Bitcoin, which has risen overnight with a gain of about 5 percent from $702 to $737.
Coupled with the weakening Chinese yuan, the total USD value of trading volume on major Bitcoin exchanges, according to Blockchain.info, rose within the last 24 hours from $13.6 mln to $21.7 mln as of Nov. 8, whilst from Nov. 6 the number of daily confirmed Bitcoin transactions jumped from 228,420 to 296,060.
The U.S. Republican presidential candidate’s rise in the poll for presidency has correlated with a rise in the price of Bitcoin.
This is despite reports that say a Trump win would be similar to the fallout from the U.K.’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union in June. Based on the views shared by market insiders, as the final poll results shows Trump sitting with 276 votes over his Democrat counterpart, Hillary Clinton, at 218, this fallout could still get a little messier in the coming days.
Trump and Bitcoin price
The Juniper Research study titled Will Bitcoins Bite Back?, predicted that if Trump won the elections, the price of Bitcoin would be boosted:
“There is the very real prospect of turmoil on world markets. Bitcoin would thrive in such an environment, at least until the impact on major fiat currencies becomes clear.”
A tightening U.S. election race has sent shares in the Asian market tumbling to a 7 week low and the US dollar has since lost ground against the yen and the euro from Nov. 2. As a growing safe haven alternative to gold, and its recent record high in a number of user transactions, Bitcoin is likely to benefit from the current market outlook.
Whether the small rise in the price of Bitcoin is a result of holders purchasing more in the hope its overall price will go up, or whether it is being bought by investors and new users, will be a factor to be determined in the days to come.
Global economic outlook
A CMC Markets analyst in Singapore, Margaret Yang, told Bloomberg that in the event of a Trump win:
“Valuations of U.S. equities are quite high, and a Trump victory will trigger a massive selloff. Many would consider that a classic “black swan event” and the reaction would be “much more severe” than Brexit, which caused the S&P 500 Index to fall 5.3 percent in two days as benchmarks in Europe and elsewhere lost even more.”
Barclays Plc stated, in a report, that it envisions a violent flight to quality if Trump wins, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised the possibility of a potential surprise in its report, titled “I demand a recount,” that might produce a similar reaction. According to Bloomberg, Barclays predicted a S&P 500 nosedive of as much as 13 percent if Trump wins, while JPMorgan’s John Normand said that judging the Republican’s longer-term impact is difficult to assess because “some of Trump’s policy proposals are so unconventional (trade, immigration) and others so vague (fiscal).” Citigroup Equity Strategist Tobias Levkovich put the hit at no more than 5 percent in a report while the Societe Generale sees a drop to 1,950, or 8.5 percent lower than Monday.
10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped three basis points to 1.82 percent; Euro Swiss franc gained at least 0.7 percent against the dollar, while gold jumped 2.6 percent; crude oil fell by 1.4 percent and the Mexican peso has fallen by more than 13 percent since Trump’s victory was confirmed.