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Market data provided by HitBTC exchange.
Altcoins led the rally this week from the lows with bitcoin (BTC) lagging behind. After a sharp up move, it was natural for traders to book profits on their quick gains. While altcoins have pulled back sharply from their recent highs, bitcoin has held up quite well. Its dominance has gradually inched from about 50% in early-April to 54.5%.
During times of crisis in the industry, investors usually take refuge in bitcoin. Following the recently reported scandal involving crypto exchange Bitfinex and stablecoin tether (USDT), traders have converted their tether into bitcoin. Though both firms have issued a joint statement denying any wrongdoing, investors are playing it safe.
Such events give an opportunity to traditional brokerages to enter the nascent space as they offer a trusted relationship to their clients. The latest to take the plunge is online trading firm E*Trade Financial Group as it reportedly readies to offer cryptocurrency trading in BTC and ether (ETH) on its platform. E*Trade had 4.9 million brokerage accounts on Dec. 31 of last year. With such a massive reach, the move would be an important one for cryptocurrency adoption.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin completed a bullish crossover this week for the first time since October 2015. This move arguably indicates a trend reversal. The bear market has seen a lot of investors lose huge sums of money. One among them was a seasoned investor, Japanese billionaire and founder of multinational conglomerate SoftBank Group, Masayoshi Son who booked a loss of about $130 million trading bitcoin.
While many consider bitcoin to be digital gold, a recent survey in Europe found that only 49% of respondents believe that BTC will be around 10 years from now. This shows that cryptocurrencies will have to evolve further to be accessible and friendly to the non-tech savvy public.
The BTC/USD pair has largely stayed above the breakout level of $4,914.11 for the past three weeks. But the bulls are struggling to push the price to the next overhead resistance of $5,900.
Currently, the 50-week SMA is acting as a resistance. If the bulls defend the $4,914.11 levels again during the next fall, it will indicate buying at lower levels and the pair might remain range bound for a few more weeks. Consolidation at these levels is a positive sign.
But if the price rebounds sharply from the current levels or from $4,914.11, the cryptocurrency could rally to $5,900. We anticipate a stiff resistance at this level.
On the downside, if the bears sink the pair below $4,914.11, it can drop to the 20-week EMA and below it to $4,255.
The next couple of weeks are very important as it will set the stage for the next leg of the move.
XEM/USD
When all the top 20 coins are in the red, it shows that the markets are at a risk of turning down. Nem (XEM) was the second-best performer this week as it fell by about 9% in the past seven days. What is in store? Can it stage a recovery or will it continue to slide further? Let us find out.
The recovery in the XEM/USD pair hit a roadblock at the overhead resistance of $0.07790717. The price has been correcting for the past three weeks. The bulls will attempt to defend the support at $0.060 and below it $0.053. If these supports breakdown, a retest of the lows is probable.
On the other hand, if the pair rebounds from $0.060, the bulls will again try to propel it above the overhead resistance of $0.07790717. If successful, it can move up to the 50-week SMA at $0.10 and above it to $0.13. The cryptocurrency is yet to form a reversal setup. We shall wait for it to show some strength before turning positive on it.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) has been in the news for the past few days as a few exchanges delisted it. After the initial plunge, prices seem to be stabilizing. The delisting put it and its creator, Craig Wright, in the limelight. Ayr United, a football team in Scotland, has signed a sponsorship that will feature the bitcoin SV logo on its shirts.
The BSV/USD pair had been trading inside a range of $102.580 and $58.072 for the past few weeks. It turned down from the top of the range three weeks back and since then has been facing strong selling due to the negative news surrounding it.
The bears broke below the support of the range at $58.072 and continued lower. Currently, the bulls are attempting to rebound from the psychological support of $50. If the bulls carry the price back into the range, we can expect the pair to consolidate between $58.072 and $102.580 for the next few weeks.
But if the bulls fail to ascend above $58.072, the bears will again try to breakdown the support at $50. If that happens, a retest of the lows at $38.528 is possible.
ETH/USD
The co-founder of Ethereum has proposed increasing Ether staking rewards once the protocol switches to Proof of Stake (PoS). Meanwhile, Ethereum developers this week announced that they had raised the required funding for a third-party audit of the ProgPoW code.
In other news, reports recently surfaced that Samsung plans to develop a public-private blockchain based on Ethereum. The token is likely to be named Samsung Coin.
Societe Generale SFH — a subsidiary of Societe Generale Group — issued a 100 million euro bond on the Ethereum blockchain.
In a negative development, a hacker managed to siphon off about 45,000 ether by successfully guessing weak private keys.
The ETH/USD pair has slipped back below the breakout level of $167.32, which is a negative sign. It invalidates the bullish breakout of the ascending triangle pattern. The next support on the downside is $144.78. If this also breaks, the drop could extend to the trendline of the ascending triangle.
However, if the pair rebounds off the support at $144.78, the bulls will again try to scale above $167.32. If successful, the next overhead resistance is $187.98. If this level is crossed, the pair is likely to pick up momentum and quickly rally to its target objective of $251.64. As it has formed a reversal pattern at the bottom, this target price might even be crossed.
BNB/USD
Binance’s token sale platform Launchpad successfully completed the sale of Matic Network (MATIC) tokens through its new lottery system. About 58.38% of the applicants benefitted from the lottery. Binance completed the launch of its decentralized trading platform (DEX) just a week after launching its own blockchain, Binance Chain.
Binance also launched its much-awaited exchange in Singapore, where it initially plans to offer bitcoin trading using Singapore dollars. Binance coin (BNB) is still holding out close to its lifetime highs. What is its next likely direction? Let’s take a look.
The BNB/USD pair came within a whisker of breaking out to new highs but failed to do so. The pair is facing selling at the resistance line of the wedge pattern. However, the positive point is that the pullback has been shallow. This shows that the buyers are keen to step in even on a minor dip.
If the pair stays above the uptrend line of the wedge, it might enter into a consolidation for a couple of weeks, after which we expect another attempt by the bulls to make a new high. A new high is likely to attract more buyers and the cryptocurrency might surprise on the upside.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the pair below the uptrend line of the wedge. A breakdown of the wedge is a bearish pattern that can result in a quick drop to the 20-week EMA.
Market data provided by HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis provided by TradingView.