Preparations for the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) futures on Bakkt are on track. While market participants were excited before the launch of CME group’s futures trading at the end of 2017, the current launch is being approached with caution. Bitcoin’s volatility continues to drop, which shows that both bulls and bears are not taking large directional bets.
Bitcoin’s dominance, that had risen above 71% in the past week is showing signs of cooling down. It has currently dropped below 70%. This implies that, for a few days, the action might shift to altcoins. However, this period of low volatility is unlikely to continue for long because after the Bakkt launch, both bulls and bears will attempt to establish their supremacy. This will result in increased volatility and a trending move.
How should traders position themselves? Is this a good time to buy and wait or is it better to wait for the uptrend to resume before taking any positions? Let’s consult the charts.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin again turned down from just below $11,000 on Sept. 6. This level has been acting as a stiff resistance for the past few days. However, the positive thing is that bears have not been able to sink the cryptocurrency below the moving averages. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is at the center, which suggests balance between buyers and sellers.
The trend will turn bullish on a breakout and close (UTC time) above the downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle. Therefore, traders can attempt to take a long position as suggested in our earlier analysis. The target objective on the upside is $15,376.96. However, the BTC/USD pair is likely to face stiff resistance at the yearly high at $13,973.5. If bulls struggle to propel the price above this level, we will suggest booking partial profits and trailing the stops higher.
Instead of a breakout, if the price plummets below the critical support of $9,080, the trend will turn negative and a drop to $7,451.63 is possible. Such a move will dent sentiment and will delay the resumption of the uptrend.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) has reached the 20-day EMA. If it breaks out of this resistance, a rally to the 50-day SMA is probable. Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI has risen close to the midpoint, which suggests a range formation in the short term.
The upper boundary of the range can either be $203.708 or $235.70 and the lower boundary will be $163.755. We will wait for a new buy setup to form or for boundaries of the range to be clearly defined before recommending a trade in it.
Our neutral view will be invalidated if the ETH/USD pair turns down either from the current level or from the 50-day SMA, and plunges below $163.755.
XRP/USD
XRP again held the strong support at $0.24508 on Sept. 6. This is a positive sign, which shows that the bulls are buying on dips to this support. The bounce has reached the 20-day EMA, which has acted as a stiff resistance since June 30.
If bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USD pair can move up to the 50-day SMA. Above this level, the pair will signal the end of downtrend. Therefore, we might suggest a long position on a breakout and close (UTC time) above the 50-day SMA.
Our view of a trend change will be invalidated if the price turns down from the current level or from the 50-day SMA and plummets below the $0.24508–$0.225 support zone. The flattening moving averages suggest range-bound action for a few days.
BCH/USD
The bounce in Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is facing resistance at the trendline of the ascending channel. Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests consolidation for the next few days.
A breakout of the 50-day SMA can carry the price to $360, which is likely to act as a stiff resistance. If the BCH/USD pair turns down from this level, it might remain range-bound between the neckline and $360 for a few days. Therefore, we withdraw the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis. If bulls push the price above $360, we anticipate a move to $515.35.
Conversely, if the pair turns down from current levels and plummets below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern, it can drop to $166.98 and below it to $105. We will wait for the price to move above $360 before suggesting a trade in it.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) is currently facing resistance at the 20-day EMA. However, as it has not given up much ground, which is a positive sign. We anticipate a breakout and rally to the downtrend line. The 50-day SMA is just above the downtrend line, hence, we expect strong selling at this resistance.
Contrary to our assumption, if bulls propel the LTC/USD pair above the 50-day SMA, the correction will be over. We will watch the price action above the downtrend line for a couple of days and then suggest a long position.
If the pair turns down from the downtrend line, it might remain range-bound for a few days. The cryptocurrency will resume its down-move on a break below $58. Currently, we do not find any reliable buy setup, hence, we are neutral on it.
BNB/USD
The failure of bulls to propel Binance Coin (BNB) above the 20-day EMA shows a lack of demand at these levels. If the price does not climb above $24.1709 within the next few days, we expect bears to sink the price to $18.30. A break below $18.30 will be a huge negative as it will start a downtrend.
With both moving averages sloping down and the RSI in the negative zone, the path of least resistance is to the downside. Our bearish view will be invalidated if the BNB/USD pair rises above the 50-day SMA. Above this level, a rally to $32.50, followed by a move to lifetime highs is likely. We will wait for the price to sustain above the 50-day SMA before proposing a trade in it.
EOS/USD
EOS has sharply bounced from the support at $3.1534. This shows strong buying by bulls. It has sustained above the 20-day EMA for the first time since June 26, which is a positive sign. This shows that the sellers are losing their grip.
The EOS/USD pair has risen above the 50-day SMA. The bulls might face some resistance at the downtrend line, but if this level is crossed, a rally to $4.8719 is probable. We will wait for the price to break out of $4.8719 before recommending a trade in it.
Our bullish view will be negated if the pair turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below $3.1534. However, we give this a low possibility of occurring.
BSV/USD
Both bulls and bears are not showing any great interest in Bitcoin SV (BSV). Hence, it has been trading in a tight range for the past few days. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is just below 50, which points to a range-bound action for a few days. Usually, a period of low volatility is followed by an increase in volatility, however, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.
If the BSV/USD pair rises above $150, it might attract strong buying that can carry the price to $188.69. Above this level, a retest of lifetime highs is likely. Conversely, if the pair turns down from current levels and plunges below $120, it can drop to the next support of $107. As there is no clarity on the direction of the next breakout, we are not recommending a trade in it.
XMR/USD
Monero (XMR) has been trading close to the 20-day EMA for the past three days. Though it broke out of the 20-day EMA, it has not been able to scale above the 50-day SMA. Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which points to a consolidation.
A breakout of the resistance line of the wedge will signal a likely change in trend. Therefore, traders can buy on a breakout and close (UTC time) above the downtrend line. The first target will be a move to $97.9733 and above it $120. However, a failure to break out of the wedge will attract selling that can drag the price back towards the recent lows of $65.7316. As the overall sentiment in altcoins is not bullish, please keep the position size about 50% of usual.
ADA/USD
Cardano (ADA) has been trading in a tight range of $0.0433229 to $0.0466404 for the past few days. A breakout of this range can push the price to the 50-day SMA, which will indicate a probable change in trend.
A breakout of the 50-day SMA can carry the ADA/USD pair to $0.065. The bullish divergence on the RSI is a positive sign. As the risk is low, we suggest that aggressive traders buy on a close (UTC time) above the 20-day EMA and keep a stop loss of $0.043.
Our view will be invalidated if the pair reverses direction from current levels and plummets below $0.043. In such a case, a drop to $0.035778 is possible.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.