Ethereum’s price is again testing the bottom limit of the long-term flat. The beginning of a medium-term trend is therefore likely to grow under these conditions.
ETH/USD
As was predicted last week, the large amount of buy stop orders has prevented the price from falling even lower. Instead, Ether’s price is steadily forming a sub-wave of the downward trend. At the moment, ETH has again reached the bottom limit of its long-term flat. There is a pretty large volume near $10. The sentiment of the majority of the bulls hasn’t changed from the beginning of previous week, and they still expect at least a new wave of the flat, headed towards $14.
However, a big seller can still provoke decent volatility by making the bulls sell everything they have bought near $10. If the price fortifies near $9.5 and forms a downward turning wave, the price of Ether could go as low as $7. Large sellers have to get the price at least down to that mark in order to make profit. Such an increase in volatility can likely influence the bulls and in that case, they will start selling en masse, which will ultimately lead to a new price surge. That will happen because of the large sellers absorbing their profit. This is the most likely scenario, given the current situation with the buy stop orders.
In regards to the opposite scenario, in order to form a new upward wave of the sideway movement, Ether’s price has to break through very serious resistance near $11.5. The key level has moved to that zone over the past week. It is also a crossing area for the Fibonacci 61 percent retracement, the diagonal channel and the peak of the rebound of the last sub-wave of the downward movement. The importance of that mark is confirmed by the large volume of sell stop orders. The majority of the bears expect a continuation of the downward trend to follow the upward rebound and it seems that this level of correction is acceptable for many traders. That is why the price of Ether is most likely to stop there in case of growth. If the price holds near $11.5, Ether will have a chance to jump to $14, forming a wave of the flat.
ETC/USD
Ethereum Classic has not managed to fortify near $1, which means that there is not enough support for the upward trend of ETC, and that the downward trend will continue. Ethereum Classic is forming a new sub-wave of the downward trend. In case of insufficient support from the bulls, this wave can provoke an even deeper fall in the future.
In order for the ETC’s price to fall even deeper, it has to fortify near $0.85, which is the peak of the downward trend. The majority of the bulls usually show themselves at such levels, which is why if they are in the minority, a further fall is inevitable.
At the moment, there exists no signs for strong growth. So far, there have been no factors which would indicate that the downward trend is broken, which means that the price will continue falling or form a flat. Currently, we can already see the limits of the flat, which is currently $1 and $0.85. The price of Ethereum Classic will fluctuate inside that range for quite a while, until a big buyer shows up. The longer the price keeps falling, the less people will want to buy the coin. That means that the very first signs of growth can provoke the majority into buying Ethereum Classic, because right now the price is at the most profitable level since ETC’s appearance.
The key technicals, where a change of trends is most likely to occur, includes:
- The downward trend on Ethereum can continue, if the price fortifies near $9.5. In order to grow, Ether has to break through the $11.5 resistance.
- In order to break the downward trend on ETC, the price has to fortify near $1.