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China honestly deserves to be the number one bearish participant of the market this year.
It had started the year with the ban on the withdrawal of assets from trading platforms and return to trade commissions. Now China is forbidding ICOs inside the country and is thinking about the closure of all trading platforms.
On Monday morning, Sept. 11, it was reported that China is prohibiting Bitcoin exchanges while allowing OTC trades.
While this order amid to clamp down on financial risk, China remains to be a home to nearly a quarter of the world's Bitcoin trades nowadays.
This may result in another geographical shift in demand within the Asian region. Another problem may be the wave of various bans and attempts to resolve crypto activities in different countries. And in the future, it will adversely affect Bitcoin market price.
On the positive note, we can see more thorough preparation for ICOs and a significant reduction of scams.
Fundamental analysis
As of 3 p.m., UTC weighted average price for Bitcoin is $4,149, and the market capitalization has fallen by 15 percent from $163 bln to $141 bln. Still this is not the deepest roll down this year, but definitely the sharpest one.
On Monday morning, Sept. 4, the market woke up with a shake-up on the news that the People's Bank of China issued an order banning all initial coins offering in the country. The prohibition extends not only to new primary distributions of coins. Organizations and individuals who have already carried out ICOs will have to return funds to investors.
By the middle of the week, some projects, like, Health Mutual Society, have already started returning money to their investors. And such a large exchange like Binance announced that it will start blocking Chinese IP addresses to avoid conflict with the state.
The second week's decline in the price of assets in the cryptocurrency market was also triggered by ambiguous statements from the Chinese authorities to close the ecosystem of stock exchanges in the country.
According to Coinmarketcap, the largest Bitcoin exchanges in China report the sharpest drop in prices. The price of BTC / CNY on OKCoin at the moment was $3,650.71, while Huobi and BTCC reported prices of $3,657.84 and $3,656.57 respectively.
During the week another three countries were active against ICO. Canada’s, South Korea and Israel government's activity on ICO and cryptocurrency should be watched after. They might become next to impose some restrictions on this kind of investment activity.
At the end of the August, Canada issued the document in which states that it takes care of its investors and businesses.
Infrastructure analysis
On Sunday evening, the price divergence between the Chinese market (CNY) and other liquid markets was about $500.
The average price in relation to USD, JPY, KRW, GBP, EUR is $ 4,200.
The share of the BTC/NY transaction pair for the week increased by 25 percent for all transactions. Still, the USD remains the leader with 54.47 percent. JPY and EUR had 8,86 percent and 10,52 percent respectively, while others had less than one percent.
A quarter of the week's trading volume was held on two Chinese exchanges - OKCoin and BTCC. The biggest number of a transaction was made on Bitfinex - 21.31 percent, while Kraken and Coinbase had 9.97 percent and 10.41 percent respectively.
Technical analysis
Technically, the market is now in a local descending trend and the price tends to increase to $3,900 level, where it had received support twice before. Along with “Chinese pressure” on the domestic market, the whole market looks weak.
At the moment, based on the chart, it is necessary to observe the further development of events. The price may be delayed in search of demand around the range of $3,900 to $4,000. Also, don’t forget to take the graph and news into consideration.
There is no entering point in the market right now. It can appear right in the down of the range channel, providing there’s positive news, or in case the price goes higher than $4,500, on a new wave.