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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
At the beginning of the year, the analysts were very bullish on Bitcoin and had projected high targets for 2018. Many did not revise their target lower even after the sharp fall in January this year because they were expecting a sharp bounce from the lows.
Fast forward to June, the analysts are getting worried about the lack of momentum, resulting in a downward revision in target prices.
In January, price comparison site Finder had arrived at a year-end price of $33,000 on Bitcoin after compiling the forecasts of a panel of cryptocurrency experts. This week, Finder has slashed the target price to $14,638 by end-2018.
Stock analytics firm Trefis is also not very ‘gung-ho’ on the prospects of a sharp rebound in Bitcoin prices this year. It has lowered its year-end price forecast from $15,000 to $12,000. Both these price forecasts still offer a decent upside from the current levels.
Probably, the game changer will be the entry of institutional investors. Various firms are laying their groundwork to benefit from the influx of big money. The latest to join the crypto trading bandwagon is the American global trading and technology firm Susquehanna International Group, which will open Bitcoin futures trading for a small group of its 500 clients.
So, is this the right time to buy? Let’s see.
BTC/USD
The 20-day EMA is proving to be a major hurdle for Bitcoin. Today, the price has turned down once again. Both the moving averages and the RSI are falling, which is a negative sign. If the immediate support at the small trendline breaks, the digital currency can fall to $7,433, $7,317 and $7,100.
The first signs of recovery will be when the BTC/USD pair breaks out and sustains above the 20-day EMA. Confirmation of a change in the short-term trend will be on a breakout and close above $7,941.68.
We continue to hold the view that the large range between $6,075-$12,172 is still in play. Therefore, traders should either wait for a break out above $7,941.68 or for a fall closer to $6,500 to initiate long positions.
ETH/USD
Ethereum did not trigger our buy levels at $630, suggested in the previous analysis. It has turned down from the 20-day EMA and has broken the trendline support. It is currently trying to hold above the resistance line of the descending channel. If this support breaks and it re-enters the channel, it can slide to $540.
The 50-day SMA is rising while the 20-day EMA is flat. If the bulls manage to hold the resistance line of the channel and push prices above $630, it will indicate strength. Therefore, we retain our buy recommendation provided in the previous analysis.
After initiating long positions, if the ETH/USD pair struggles to break out of the 50-day SMA, the traders can raise the stops to breakeven.
XRP/USD
Ripple has held the 20-day EMA for the past five days but has failed to move up. It has been trading in a small range for the past two days. Both moving averages are flat, which confirms consolidation in the short-term.
The probable range is between $0.633-$0.75. A break of $0.633 can sink the XRP/USD pair to $0.56 levels, whereas, a break above $0.75 can carry it to the downtrend line of the descending triangle.
The digital currency will turn bullish if it breaks out and sustains above the downtrend line of the descending triangle. We don’t find any buy setups at the present levels; hence, we are not suggesting any trade on it.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash sustained above the 20-day EMA for the past two days, but the bears are trying to push prices below the 20-day EMA today. The short-term moving average is flat whereas the long-term moving average is rising. The RSI has also turned flat near the midline. This increases the probability of consolidation in the near term.
A break below $1060 will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears while a breakout of the $1306 levels indicates advantage bulls.
The BCH/USD pair periodically enters such small ranges before breaking out or breaking down from it with force. We shall wait for a confirmation of the commencement of the up move before recommending any long positions in it.
EOS/USD
EOS triggered our buy recommendation specified in the previous analysis when it closed above the 50-day SMA. However, the bullishness was short-lived as it has declined sharply today, giving up most of the gains of the previous day.
The EOS/USD pair has a strong support zone between the 20-day EMA and $12.987. If this support zone breaks, the cryptocurrency will become negative and slide to $12 and below that to $10.3384. Therefore, we have suggested keeping the stop loss close to $12.5 levels.
As the support zone is just below the current levels, we suggest holding the long positions with the designated stop loss. We are not bailing out of the position yet because both the moving averages are trending up and the price has still not broken below the 20-day EMA.
LTC/USD
Litecoin has failed to scale above $127 levels, hence, our buy recommendation provided in the previous analysis did not trigger. There is strong support at $115. If the support holds, the digital currency might consolidate in a tight range for a few days, before breaking out or breaking down from it.
A breakdown below $107 will complete the bearish descending triangle pattern, which is a negative sign. Though the pattern targets are way lower, the LTC/USD pair can easily decline to $84.708.
The cryptocurrency will gain strength in the short-term once it breaks out and sustains above $127. It will be completely out of danger once it breaks out of the downtrend line of the descending triangle.
We don’t find any buy setups at the current levels; hence, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
ADA/USD
After failing to break out and close (UTC) above $0.23, Cardano has turned down. The 20-day EMA, which had flattened out has started to decline, which is a negative sign.
The ADA/USD pair can now fall to $0.17, which is minor support. If this level also breaks, the next downside support is at $0.13. We might buy close to $0.13 levels because we expect the digital currency to remain in a large range of $0.13-$0.436956.
We shall wait for buying to return before suggesting a trade on it.
XLM/USD
The long position recommended by us in Stellar is currently in a loss. On June 07, the bulls failed to sustain above the overhead resistance of $0.303. Currently, the price is retreating. A failure to hold the $0.27 levels can extend the fall to $0.25, hence, we had raised the stops in our previous analysis.
The 20-day EMA has turned down marginally, which increases the probability of a fall. However, as the XLM/USD pair has risen from just above $0.27 levels on three occasions, we want to hold the positions for a couple of days more.
The digital currency will gain strength if the bulls succeed in breaking out and sustaining above $0.303 levels.
IOTA/USD
IOTA has been hanging on to the critical support level of $1.63 for the past three days but is finding it difficult to secure a strong bounce. This increases the possibility of a drop below $1.63.
If the IOTA/USD pair breaks below $1.63, it will become negative and can slide to $1.33, which is its next support. If the $1.33 level also breaks, the drop can extend to $0.9150.
Our bearish view will be invalidated if the bulls hold $1.63 and trigger a strong bounce from there.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.