As the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been slowly consolidating over the past few months, altcoins have been taking the spotlight. Recently, massive moves were made by Chainlink (LINK), Zilliqa (ZIL) and Elrond (ERD) and that’s just naming a few of the more popular altcoins.
The latter of the three is an IEO (Initial Exchange Offering), meaning, investors’ eyes are automatically focused on Binance Coin (BNB), which has outperformed Bitcoin so far this month by roughly 17%. Moreover, if the price of Binance Coin starts to move, typically the IEO tokens typically follow suit.
Crypto market daily performance. Source: TradingView
BNB price breaks above the 100 and 200-day moving average
As shown on the chart below, this week the BNB/BTC pair is breaking above the 100-day and 200-day moving average. This is a crucial breakthrough, as in previous times it marked the start of a new rally.
BNB/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
As the daily chart shows below, BNB made a double bottom structure, after which a slight rally occurred.
BNB/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
BNB price then tested the old support of 0.0016800 sats and with this level confirmed as support a minor downtrend breakout occurred. This breakout led to a break back into the range of the previous months.
This range is defined between support at 0.0018000 sats and resistance at 0.0023000 sats. Reclaiming this previous support at 0.0018000 is essential for further upside momentum.
If that level sustains support, it’s likely to expect a test of the highs again. This is because the price has tested the lows, lost the support, and reclaimed this support. When this occurs it's usually a sign that buyers are stepping into the asset, prompting a retest of the other range levels.
Applying this argument to the daily chart, a renewed test of the 0.0023000 sats resistance level would mean that consolidation above the 100-day and 200-day MA could occur and this would trigger a repeated cycle. However, what crucial steps must BNB take for this to occur?
BNB/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The BNB/BTC pair first needs to break the range resistance for confirmation. The first step would be to claim the 100 and 200-day MAs as support and hold above the 0.0018000 sats level.
However, if BNB/BTC wants to start accelerating, it has to break the range resistance at the 0.0022500-0.0024000 sats level. Breaking through that resistance zone would allow a rally toward the peak high to occur.
BNB/USDT has to hold the support at $17
BNB/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The USDT pair of Binance Coin is showing an apparent breakthrough in the $16.50-$17 resistance level. However, to sustain the upward momentum, a support/resistance flip of the same level is needed.
Analyzing the 100 and 200-day MAs reveals some interesting features worthy of further analysis.
BNB/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are currently moving below the price of BNB and this is significant as the same thing occurred at the beginning of 2019.
This breakthrough started the cycle from $8 to the peak high at $40, which was also a 500% rally. This doesn’t mean that BNB can make a similar rally as the future can’t be forecasted but nonetheless it is a valuable sign.
However, by breaking and flipping the 100 and 200-day MA as support, further upward momentum is warranted. Likewise, the $16.50-$17 level is currently around the moving averages so it is expected that this area will be a crucial factor that determines if the price can move higher.
For the time being, BNB/USDT needs to clear the $21-$21.50 area, then there is another barrier at $25.75-$26.25.
Will “IEO season” follow?
As mentioned earlier, when Binance Coin is moving, the IEO’s usually follow. It’s similar to the correlation between Stellar Lumens (XLM) and XRP (XRP). If the first one moves, the latter follows.
One Binance IEO which has outperformed the market with a 1,000% rally is Elrond (ERD).
ERD/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The ERD/BTC daily chart shows that once the price moved above the 100 and 200-day MAs in May the price of Elrond saw a massive surge.
This massive surge led to an increase of 1,485%, which is one of the most substantial moves this year. However, does that mean that now is an excellent opportunity to buy Elrond? No, because it seems unlikely that the price will continue moving forward.
The support levels are significantly lower than the current price (around 90 sats), and there’s a potential bearish divergence coming in to play.
What the chart does show is that there is great potential from IEOs and this could increase as Binance Coin starts to move.
CELR/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
There are also other IEOs that are showing similar price action to Elrond but they are lagging heavily. Take, for example, Celer Network (CELR). Currently, the altcoin is showing some of the same signals that did Elrond in May.
In June, the CELR/BTC pair broke above the 100 and 200-day MA, which was the first time it has done this since listing in March 2019.
Furthermore, CELR is constantly flipping previous resistance levels to support and the trading volume is increasing which is usually a sign of accumulation.
Currently, CELR/BTC has resistance at 0.00000070 and 0.00000100 sats. If the price can break through the 0.00000100 sats level, continuation toward 0.00000250 sats or higher is possible.
For the time being, all eyes are on Binance Coin, and if it continues to push higher, the IEOs will most likely follow.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.