Before we dive into the details of Ethereum's next stage of development, let's briefly recap the role of forks in the blockchain ecosystem, the different types of network forks, and the structure of Ethereum's roadmap. Then, we will cover the two phases of the Istanbul hard fork and the particular changes that will be implemented.
In open source software (OSS) development, projects are built out in the open rather than behind closed doors. This creates a high degree of transparency and fosters more open participation throughout a project's development.
In traditional OSS, a fork occurs when the source code of a project is copied to be developed independently of the original project. Forks can happen for a variety of reasons, but usually it involves a rift within the developer community.
Blockchain forks occur in largely two categories: soft forks and hard forks.
Soft forks are upgrades to the protocol which are backwards-compatible with older versions of the software but not the other way around. Simply put, there is no risk of the network splitting into multiple chains and issuing new currencies.
Hard forks are absolute changes to the protocol that must be done in consensus (i.e. all miners upgrade their software accordingly) or else risk splitting the network into multiple live chains. Hard forked versions of the protocol are incompatible with older versions.
The context and reasons for hard forks vary. These include:
These occur when there is a schism within or between the devs and the miners, the groups who collectively maintain the network. An example of a contentious hard fork is the split in the Ethereum blockchain following the massive hack of The DAO project which compromised millions of ETH (worth billions at the time of writing). When the hack occurred, there was a division in the community over how to respond: accept that the hack happened and maintain the immutability of the transaction record or modify the record such that the hack never happened and rescue the funds.
When the Ethereum developers gauged community sentiment and deemed it best to rescue the funds, a hard fork was implemented. Some refused the upgrade and continued mining the original chain, resulting in the network splitting in two: Ethereum Classic (ETC) and Ethereum (ETH) chain. This landmark event has become a go-to example of contentious forks.
Consisting of two phases, Istanbul will bring the final network upgrades and changes before Ethereum transitions into the ETH2.0 launch.
During the developers call which finalized the EIPs going into the first Istanbul fork, Ethereum Core developer Péter Szilágyi had this to say on the two-part structure:
We split Istanbul into two. One of them we can actually ship within weeks. [The other contains] two really big EIPs that would be nice to have but require some stuff that cannot be done within the two- or three-week timespan.
Istanbul will largely bring much-needed improvements to the EVM that should result in improved performance of decentralized applications and a better experience for users. The chances of a contentious hard fork and a chain split are very slim. In large part, users may not even know that the network has upgraded at all.
Assuming the fork goes smoothly, the price of ETH shouldn't be disturbed by the fork. If contentious issues such as ProgPoW become more heated and enough miners refuse to participate with the upgrade, the chain could split in two, resulting in a dilution of ETH's value. However, this does not seem to be likely, so price fluctuations around the date of the another fork are expected to be minimal-to-none.
Public blockchains such as Ethereum are a unique techno-social phenomenon. While there is a rich history of open source software projects evolving with zero or limited central coordination, creating some of the most widely used systems of the modern world, blockchain development allows us to witness the evolution (and growing pains) of live networks of value with stakeholders all around the world.
Ethereum’s next phase of development will directly challenge the notion of “unstoppable applications” with the very changes in the protocol rendering some applications practically useless.
Ultimately, this is a learning experience for developers in Ethereum and other blockchain ecosystems to reassess what it means to create resilient software in an ever-changing environment.
Ethereum, in general, is an exciting project because they’re trying the hardest out of anyone in the crypto space to scale without sacrificing decentralization.
