{"id":8827,"date":"2021-09-03T08:11:21","date_gmt":"2021-09-03T12:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/magazine\/?p=8827"},"modified":"2021-09-09T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2021-09-09T15:26:42","slug":"how-to-prepare-for-end-of-bull-run-part-1-timing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/magazine\/2021\/09\/03\/how-to-prepare-for-end-of-bull-run-part-1-timing","title":{"rendered":"How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bobby Lee “blames” his brother Charlie \u2014 the founder of Litecoin \u2014 for causing the 2017\/2018 Bitcoin price crash.<\/strong><\/p>\n

He’s joking of course. Sort of.<\/p>\n

Charlie famously sold<\/a> the last tranche of his Litecoin holdings in December 2017 for $350 each.<\/p>\n

Bobby remembers seeing the news hit Twitter. “I was like, gosh, that probably marks the peak,” he says.<\/p>\n

“I said to him jokingly, like \u2018you just caused the end of the bull market\u2019.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course, Charlie wasn’t the real reason the bull market ended, but it was a stunning piece of market timing, given he sold the last of three tranches of LTC at almost the exact top. It was no fluke either, as Charlie had predicted in early December that a “multi-year bear market” with 90% drawdowns was imminent.<\/p>\n

The question is whether ordinary crypto traders and hodlers can follow Charlie’s lead and sell out at the next market peak, allowing them to buy back in and accumulate more at the bottom.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a difficult feat to pull off and most people are more likely to follow the footsteps of podcaster Peter McCormack, who famously got caught up in the hype of 2017 and watched his Bitcoin portfolio skyrocket to $1.2 million… and then plunge<\/a> back to near zero after he was forced to sell his stash to pay the bills in the depths of crypto winter.<\/p>\n

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\"Fan<\/div><\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Fan tokens: Day trading your favorite sports team<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> October 7, 2021<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>
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\"Icelandic<\/div><\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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What it\u2019s like when the banks collapse: Iceland 2008 firsthand<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> October 5, 2021<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>
\n\t\t\t\t
\n \n
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\"Crypto<\/div><\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Crypto City: Guide to Tokyo<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> October 1, 2021<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>
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\"Before<\/div><\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Before NFTs: Surging interest in pre-CryptoPunk collectibles<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> September 27, 2021<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>
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\"Bitcoin<\/div><\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Bitcoin ledger as a secret weapon in war against ransomware<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/i> September 16, 2021<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Some of the biggest brains in crypto have been working on this problem, from onchain analyst Willy Woo to David Puell of Puell Multiple fame and Decentrader\u2019s Filbfilb and Philip Swift. Around 2018, they began devising metrics and indicators based on historical patterns to help determine when the peaks and troughs will be approaching.<\/p>\n

There is a range of views as to whether timing the market is even possible. Bobby Lee swears by the halving price cycles, while Quantum Economics\u2019 Mati Greenspan and Wolf of All Streets’ Scott Melker believe it\u2019s best to follow sensible rules on profit taking and portfolio construction that don\u2019t require you to predict events in advance.<\/p>\n

The unpredictability of markets was evident while writing this story, which I started writing in April and then had to put it on hold for four months after news out of China and Elon Musk\u2019s Twitter account nuked the markets and made the bull run seem like a distant memory.<\/p>\n

Spoiler alert: All of the commentators interviewed agree that you should try and take profits on the way up.<\/p>\n

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Every crypto bull run I've seen has been followed by a bear cycle. The market needs time to consolidate. That's just my experience from 7 years of watching this space.<\/p>\n

How low and how long it will be is TBD. People need to be aware of this possibility and invest responsibly. https:\/\/t.co\/ozcR11N68o<\/a><\/p>\n

— Charlie Lee [LTC\u26a1] (@SatoshiLite) December 11, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n